There is no such thing as security in footy.
Or is there?
We have sureties for footy on Friday night, but with eight other games in round 10, we looked closely to have one certainty for each team for the remaining games.
Take a look at our guarantees for the rest of the action of the weekend.
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Geelong v Port Adelaide
Geelong kicks at least 80 points
The Cats rarely lose two in a row, especially if one of them is home. But Chris Scott seems to have a different mindset in 2022, so the first thing he’s looking for is for the Cats to get their attacking flair back against the Power on Saturday.
Geelong have kicked at least 80 points in six of their last seven games, but they haven’t put in huge scores. The club have said they want to improve their attack, so expect that to be a big focus this week after the Saints lost round 9.
Gary Rohan’s return should only improve the Cats’ scoring potential, but even if he does play back, he expects his stylish use of the ball to help his attackers, meaning 80 points should be well within reach.
Wines to get 25+ divestments
Since returning from a cardiac arrhythmia on lap 6, Wines has begun to exhibit the form that earned him the Brownlow Medal last year.
He has only dropped less than 25 disposals once since coming back to the wing when he played in the stacked midfield for the Western Bulldogs and is set to improve on that goal again on Saturday.
Geelong’s ball unit isn’t the deepest and the Cats are unlikely to tag and tamper with their normal midfield structure.
Travis Boak has also pushed for more time in recent weeks, retaining Wines as the Power’s key midfielder.
As one of the top midfielders in the league, Wines will start to warm up in 2022 and has every chance of getting 25 possessions against the Cats.
Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast
Macrae must have at least 30 divestments
After his big game against Collingwood last week, where he amassed 37 sales, Jack Macrae expects to find plenty of the Sherrin against the Suns on Saturday.
He now averages 32 sales per year, his career average against the Suns is 32 and his average at Mars Stadium is 34.
Stuart Dew may want to send someone over to him, but he will probably want his players to pay more attention to Marcus Bontempelli.
Macrae to get to 30, again, seems like a lock.
Chol and Casboult combine for 3+ goals
Now that the Bulldogs’ lack of coverage has been well publicized in recent weeks, one of the two major forwards at the Gold Coast Suns is hoping to get off the chain at Mars Stadium.
Alex Keath’s return to the side from a hamstring injury would have been a relief for Luke Beveridge last week, and it’s likely he’ll go to Mabior Chol, who kicked four majors against Fremantle last week.
So if the conditions at Mars Stadium allow for clean ball movement, Levi Casboult may have his chance.
Regardless, the pair must score at least three goals between them on a subpar Dogs defence.
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North Melbourne v Narrm (Melbourne)
Melbourne wins by over 39 points
The Demons are going to win this match – it’s just a matter of how much damage they do to struggling North Melbourne.
Melbourne has blown away most of the bottom 10 sides this year and outside of their struggles with Sydney, they have mostly been at the end of one sided affairs with the top sides.
Expect a comfortable evening at the office for the Dees.
Zurhaar scores two goals
North Melbourne can’t score a winning score, but Cam Zurhaar definitely makes it to the scoreboard.
The forward has kicked at least two goals in every game since Round 6 – including appearances where de Roos has kicked 61, 64, 24 and 46 points.
This shows that no matter how North performs, Zurhaar gets his own.
He should hit the scoreboard again this weekend.
Adelaide v St Kilda
St Kilda has the most hits
Paddy Ryder and Rowan Marshall were both in great shape when they played together this season.
After dominating Geelong ruckman Rhys Stanley last week, you can expect the same treatment this week against Adelaide’s inexperienced Kieran Strachan.
Ryder and Marshall, who combine 40 hits against Stanley and Mark Blicavs, will try to flex their muscles against Strachan and the returning Riley Thilthorpe.
Ryder and Marshall should use their midfields for the first time on Saturday night and control the ruck battle around the ground.
Laird has 25+ divestments
Rory Laird is such a good accumulator of the pill.
With an average of 32.3 sales this year, the Crows midfielder is consistently finding the ball week in, week out.
In his last appearance against the Saints, the 28-year-old made 32 disposals, and against a St Kilda midfield that doesn’t use a run-with player, Laird needn’t worry about finding it 25 times or more.
Richmond v Essendon
Bolton to pick up 15+ dives and score 1+ goal
Shai Bolton is currently in pretty good shape for Richmond.
Averaging 19 disposals and two goals per game, he most recently played in a 20-touch, two-major win over Hawthorn.
This Saturday night, he is set to play well again against Essendon after kicking three last year and scoring 21 goals, following his Yiooken Award-winning performance of 29 and a goal in Darwin in 2020.
We’ve tried this before and Shai let us down when he was scoreless against the Crows in Round 5, but in Sir Doug Nicholl’s Round and on Dreamtime’s huge podium at the ‘G, he will go the extra mile.
15 or more disposals and at least one goal for evasive No.29 of the Tigers.
Merrett, Parish and Shiel combine for 7+ tackles
The Bombers midfield was battered by the Swans last week.
The on-ball trio of Zach Merrett, Darcy Parish and Dylan Shiel put just four tackles between them. They have received their share of criticism in the aftermath and Ben Rutten will have demanded a response.
They will bounce back with their effort on the big stage and combine for at least seven tackles…certainly.
GWS v West Coast
Hogan kicks multiple goals
The Giants have made major changes ahead of their crunch clash against West Coast, with the return of Jesse Hogan being one of the key names returning to Mark McVeigh’s first game as interim coach.
In the form of a slightly awkward game against one of the fighters of the West Coast competition, Hogan will relish the chance to feast on the Eagles’ flimsy defense.
He scored three goals of the season against Adelaide just three weeks ago and is set to score at least two goals this weekend.
Kelly must have at least 25 divestments
While West Coast is currently anchored at the bottom of the ladder, Tim Kelly maintains consistency as he toils in midfield.
After a season high of 32 touches and four runs and three within the 50s, Kelly is once again a staple of the Eagles’ engine room against the Giants.
Watch out for the 27-year-old who collects at least 25 touches and becomes a key figure in the game.
Hawthorn v Brisbane
Lyon to collect 20+ divestments
Brisbane midfielder Jarryd Lyons has been a model of consistency since he became a lion in 2019.
His ability to collect football on hiatus has made him one of the best midfielders in the AFL, and he should find plenty against the Hawks on Sunday.
Last time out against Hawthorn, who happened to be at the same venue in Launceston, Lyons nearly took the best 38 disposals of his career to go with a goal.
While the Lions went down in that game, the ball-winner earned a Brownlow vote and the Hawks will have to worry about his influence again.
Given Hawthorn’s lackluster midfield, Lyons should easily break the 20-player barrier, especially as he hasn’t fallen below that figure once in 2022.
Lyons has only received under 20 disposals once since the start of last season, one under 19 in last year’s Round 23 clash against West Coast.
Don’t expect it to fall under that watermark for a while longer.
Sicily has 15+ divestments, 5+ brands and 4+ rebound 50s
Although James Sicily conceded four goals against Richmond’s Tom Lynch last weekend, he was still one of Hawthorn’s best.
He took 24 dives, 23 of which were kicks, took nine marks and had 12 rebounds from 50’s.
In his nine games this season, he has not fallen below 20, his lowest score is six and he has only had less than five 50 rebounds once.
Against Brisbane, averaging 57 within 50, which is the second highest in the league, the Hawks should get plenty of looks in defense and Sicily is their man.
At least 15 dives, five marks and four rebound 50s for the acting skipper if all goes according to plan.
Fremantle v Collingwood
Lobb two or more targets
Fremantle forward Rory Lobb was solid in 2022, scoring two or more goals from eight games five times.
On the dry deck of Optus Stadium, he is yet to be kept scoreless and this weekend he will be licking his lips against an undermanned Collingwood defence.
Without the likes of Jordan Roughead and Jack Madgen, the Magpies could be expanded with big options in Lobb and Matt Taberner moving forward for Fremantle.
While Darcy Moore is a star-tall defender, he’ll likely be sent off to Taberner, with the likes of Jeremy Howe or Nathan Murphy relinquishing significant height to Lobb.
Therefore, expect the ex-giant of the chain to come out and make a big hit on the scoreboard against the Magpies.
De Goey kicks at least one goal and collects 20+ divestments
Collingwood star Jordan De Goey has started with ups and downs until 2022.
After a strong start, polling the voices of the coaches in his first four games of the season, the dynamic striker/midfielder has slowly waned.
While he kicked a goal and had 20 disposals in last week’s game against the Bulldogs, De Goey faced quite a bit of criticism over his impact – something that would have struck at home.
With a point to prove against the Dockers, De Goey expects to improve on his season average of 22 disposals and more than one goal per game.